College football picks - week of 11/13/04

[DarkMinion]

I figured I'd get these in early so everyone could get their picks in.

#3 Auburn vs. #5 Georgia
#10 West Virginia vs. #21 Boston College
#11 Virginia vs. #17 Miami
#12 Florida State at North Carolina State
#23 Texas A&M vs. #25 Texas Tech

My picks:

Auburn
West Virginia
Virginia
Florida State
Texas Tech

[Hazard]

Auburn
West Virginia
Miami
Florida State
Texas Tech

[Grok]

I think FSU is about to get ambushed in Raleigh.  Chuck Amoto is "talking up" the Noles trying to make them sound fearsome.  To me it sounds like he's ready, his players are ready, the whole team is primed to kick some Noles ass on Thursday night ESPN nationwide TV.

I've got two great tickets to the game, but I just got home from Florida and I'm too tired of driving to go to this game.  3 hours each way.  So I'll watch it on TV with the rest of you.

Georgia
BC
Virginia
NCState
Texas Tech

[Grok]

Well changed my mind.  I'm going anyway, despite the rain, too.  Hopefully it won't be too sloppy by game time.

[Hazard]

I bet Miami rebounds this week.

[Grok]

Well that was a fun game.  Great stadium, great fans at North Carolina State!  They remind me of FSU in the late 70's a few years after Bowden arrived.  Chuck Amato is doing super things for them in Raleigh.  Too bad it rained most of the game.  Everyone was soaked but most nobody cared.  I was a little disappointed that NCState fans started filing out with 6:15 to play in the 4th quarter with the score only 17-10 FSU.  How can you leave when the game is a one-score contest still?  The Wolfpack fans might still have a ways to go on building their fanatacism and support.  Those around us (section 25) were classy and good people.  In fact, I didn't hear/see an obnoxious NCState supporter the entire night.  Most everyone gave the "good game" concession statement afterward.  I'll definitely go to their games again in the future.  The only thing I'll do differently is arrive earlier and get a closer parking spot.

[DarkMinion]

That was a painfully boring game to watch.   I guess I'm spoiled with good offense

[Hazard]

FSU looked like a bunch of school girls most of the game. I watched the majority of it. FSU's special teams was downright awful, and that punt return was embarassing. For a while it didn't look like their defense could stop anything and almost let NC State convert a few 3rd-and-15+ on runs. Sexton looked like an idiot most of the time... until the half he completed something like 5% of his passes for like 25 yards. They didn't even convert a 3rd down until about 10 minutes into the second quarter.

It wasn't all FSU though, the Wolfpack played good defense and special teams most of the game. Neither team seemed to be able to get any sort of offense going, with a total of something like 125 yards of FSU and NCState combined offense in the first half. If FSU plays like that the rest of the season, they'll be lucky to make it through unscathed.

[Grok]

Don't forget -- those were two "lights out" defenses.  I think NCState was the #1 ranked defense for a while (might still be) and FSU isn't far behind.

However, playcalling continues to suck for FSU.  Our offensive line was HORRID.  This unit was supposed to be the best ever at FSU.  Something is seriously wrong with our OL coaching and everyone knows it.  We should have been getting better every game, and we are not.

The ESPN analysts all think our play calling is pathetic too, and have called it out in several games.

If the coaches do not put the players in a position to make great plays, they cannot.  You can see the frustration with playcalling all over the field.  Sitting in the stands, you can see the players telegraphing their frustration.  No wonder the defense knows who is going to get the ball 50% of the time.  I can see it at least 25% of the time and I didn't play football.

[Hazard]

The play calling is obviously extremely poor. Consider this:

-FSU is dead last in Division-1NCAA when it come to 3rd down conversions. I believe they are in the neigborhood of 24.5% or so. Remember, this ranks below even the University of Central Florida, and they are 0-9.

-Last night in the first half FSU averaged 3rd and 13.

-FSU's first ten posessions failed to gross more than 5 positive yards. 6 of those posessions actually moved backwards from the original line of scrimage.

-FSU did not even gain a first down until 10 minutes into the second quarter.

From the way that FSU played offense in the first half, even the NCState cheerleaders even knew what plays FSU was about to run.

[Grok]

Hazard, you are right and this is nothing new to us Noles.  There are campaigns calling for the firing of Jeff Bowden (OC) and Odell Haggins (OL coach).  Those two have not only failed to meet FSU football standards of excellence, they have failed to meet any Div I-A standards!  As you pointed out, 3rd down conversions worse than anyone.

Last night, at the start of the game, Bobby Bowden did not let Jeff call any pass plays for the first 10 plays.  He was too frightened of a turnover because NCState's defense was "so darn good".  This is the same defense that Miami lit up.  Why were we so afraid?  With Chris Rix on the sidelines holding clipboard, we had better athletes on the field than Miami, and way better than NCState.

We cannot play afraid against UF this week, or we'll get spanked in Doak.  Our saving grace might be that our defense will probably play their best game of the year next week, and it's at home.  Leak could turn into a Rex Grossman by next fall, but right now he's still a Terry Dean.  I don't see Leak becoming a Danny Weurfful though.  (oops if I slaughtered DW's name)

UF offense vs FSU defense, the Noles have a great advantage.

FSU offense vs UF defense, the Gators have a good advantage.

Special Teams:  dunno.  I've only seen a couple UF games this year.  FSU punting is awesome, but kick coverage sucks.  We gave up another TD last night, after giving up nearly 1/4 mile to one guy from Clemson earlier in the year.  FG kicking is back now with Weed in there, and he's 6/6 in XP so far.

Unfortunately I do not have tickets to the game, and they're going for $300 and up.

[Hazard]

Last night, at the start of the game, Bobby Bowden did not let Jeff call any pass plays for the first 10 plays.  He was too frightened of a turnover because NCState's defense was "so darn good".  This is the same defense that Miami lit up.  Why were we so afraid?

Bobby Bowden no longer has the edge, sorry to say. The 'Noles are afraid because they have no confidence at all, on either side of the football and it is apparent last night. I mean the coaching staff is practically scouring the intramural fields looking for a Quarterback. There is next to no leadership whatsoever, and its sad with the talent that they have.

We cannot play afraid against UF this week, or we'll get spanked in Doak.  Our saving grace might be that our defense will probably play their best game of the year next week, and it's at home.

If you play scared, I have no doubt that UF will give the Noles a run for their money. Zooker has nothing to loose, and hes gotten more daring with his play calls. If they play scared, the Gators will exploit it just like NCState did.

Leak could turn into a Rex Grossman by next fall, but right now he's still a Terry Dean.  I don't see Leak becoming a Danny Weurfful though.  (oops if I slaughtered DW's name)

Given the right coach, Christ Leak could become one of the best NCAA D-1 QB's by freshman year. Believe it or not, I'm pulling for Urban Myher to come down to G-ville. You did kill ol' number 7's name, but thats okay Grokster.

UF offense vs FSU defense, the Noles have a great advantage.

I wouldn't say that. Florida has some weapons in OJ Small, Dallas Baker, and Ciatric Fason. The thing that gives the 'Noles the edge here is their experience on defense. Home field advantage is what gives them the bump as well. Then again, homefield is never really THAT huge as far as the crowds go in the rivarly, since both teams attract their fans. After all, its not a very long commute. Its just the feeling of playing on your own turn, I think.

FSU offense vs UF defense, the Gators have a good advantage.

I'd say good, but not great. FSU is screwed here because you have a young QB that obviously doesn't have a real good idea what he's doing and an old QB who has lost all his credibility who is more or less hated by the fans for his fall from "grace." I might add that the UF defense is nothing to sneer at, even with a weak group of safties. If UF wants to win this game, keep your eyes on the young Linebacker Channing Crowder to have a huge game for the Gators.

Special Teams:  dunno.  I've only seen a couple UF games this year.  FSU punting is awesome, but kick coverage sucks.  We gave up another TD last night, after giving up nearly 1/4 mile to one guy from Clemson earlier in the year.  FG kicking is back now with Weed in there, and he's 6/6 in XP so far.

Special teams... I'd give the edge to Florida on punts. You're right in that FSU punting is great, but the coverage downfield is often overkicked or just poorly executed. You have to remember you have a dangerous kick returner in Ciatrick Fason and the Noles really have to execute well on punts. On kicks, I'd say its even. Both teams perform about average in this department. *Sigh* I remember the glory days of Jacques Green.

I disagree with the change in place kickers away from Xavier Batia. Batia is a big-game experienced kicker and knows how to handle the situation and all the pressure that comes with it. While I'd love to see my Gators win, I'd hate to see FSU loose the game based solely off of a poor group of place kicks because the Noles chose to go with an untested Freshman.

Unfortunately I do not have tickets to the game, and they're going for $300 and up.

Hehe. I do.

[Grok]

I disagree with the change in place kickers away from Xavier Batia. Batia is a big-game experienced kicker and knows how to handle the situation and all the pressure that comes with it. While I'd love to see my Gators win, I'd hate to see FSU loose the game based solely off of a poor group of place kicks because the Noles chose to go with an untested Freshman.

Here's the only place where you're really wrong.  Beitia has been at FSU for 7 or 8 years (so it seems) and choked on every clutch kick he ever made except one -- against Wake Forest a couple weeks ago.  EVERY other clutch kick in his entire career at FSU was missed (or low and blocked, ala Miami).

Weed comes in fresh and not afraid of any competition.  His first FG kick was clutch (0-0 aainst Duke) and he made that and the next 4, tying the FSU single-game FG record of 5.  No misses!  Plus no XP misses.  His 49 yarder against NCState was top-dead-center and he took half the time to kick that Beitia takes.

Jaques Green .. yeh I'm glad he's gone

[Hazard]

Being forced into kicking 5 field goals in a game is not exactly something to be proud of Grok :-P'

My point is that he lacks the big game experience. You and I both know, from years of watching football, how easy it is to get a rookie rattled and uncomfortable. Just look at Sexton last night against the Wolfpack.

[Grok]

Being forced into kicking 5 field goals in a game is not exactly something to be proud of Grok :-P'

My point is that he lacks the big game experience. You and I both know, from years of watching football, how easy it is to get a rookie rattled and uncomfortable. Just look at Sexton last night against the Wolfpack.

Three answers to your three points.

#1 - I wasn't setting a value on pride level of the field goals, just pointing out that he delivered on demand.  Something Beitia FAILED to do EVERY time he was ever asked to do it.  We were comparing Beitia and Weed.

#2 - Lacks big game experience?  So what?  Proving to be a choker (Beitia) is far worse than not yet proving to not be a choker.  Look at that UNC freshman kicker and what he did to Miami.  That was CLUTCH.  He stood out there smiling as if the world was his, then went out and kicked the winning FG with 4 seconds to go.  Weed hasn't had that chance.  Beitia has had that chance repeatedly and failed every time.  So yes, Weed >>>>> Beitia by every evaluation you can come up with.

#3 - Sexton has not been put in a position to play well.  The offensive line sucks so badly and is not blocking for Sexton, he has like 0.5 seconds to make a decision before getting sacked.  What's worse, we're sending 3 receivers deep every time we try a pass, instead of staggering them and giving Sexton some outlets.  He doesn't have TIME to wait for 3 receivers to get 40 yards down the field and then evaluate which one will be the best choice.  Horrible playcalling and nonexistant pocket protection is Sexton's problem?  Nah.  When Sexton is protected and given good play calling, he is deadly accurate, carving up Clemson and Virginia.