FSU by 7

[Grok]

The line is currently FSU by 7 points.  I don't know how I feel about this game, given the history.  Everyone is acting like Miami is suddenly not Miami because of 2 guys being hurt (Gore and Sikes).  I DONT BELIEVE IT.  Their recruiting has been awesome every year and two guys dont make a whole team.  Even OSU is doing fine without Clarrett.

http://collegefootballnews.com/2003/Lines/Lines.htm

I want to feel optimistic about FSU's chances, but get the impression that hype is overcoming realism.

[DarkMinion]

Believe it.  FSU is going to win this game.  You have defenders who are fast enough and big enough to cover Kellen Winslow, and he's the biggest threat they have right now.  I have not been impressed by Brock Berlin, the Miami receivers, or their running game, period.   They got incredibly lucky to beat WVU, and WVU isn't half the team FSU is.   I say FSU by 10.

Root for Texas Tech (4-1) vs. Iowa State (2-3) this Saturday, the line is Tech by 16, the game is at Tech as well.   Tech 63 - Iowa State 17

[Grok]

We have the defensive depth, for sure ... this is from rivals:

"With the team avoiding the injury bug and the backups much more experienced depth has not been an issue in 2003. Through the first five games the defense has freely substituted at every position and there has been little drop-off when second team players are on the field. Beyond the fact that FSU currently has the No. 1 scoring defense, there are other statistics that show the unit's remarkable balance and depth. Despite having five games already in the books, no one has more than 28 total tackles. That works out to a 5.6 tackles per game average, which means there are 36 players in the ACC that average more tackles per game than any FSU defender. That's not a statistic to be concerned with; it's a sign of balance.

On most teams you expect the majority of the 11 defensive starters to be the team's top tacklers. Interestingly, of the 'Noles' top 11 tacklers, five are listed as backups (Kameron Wimbley, A.J. Nicholson, Pat Watkins, Brodrick Bunkley, and Ernie Sims). At Miami nine of the top 11 tacklers, including the the top nine, are listed as starters. The difference in depth is a good sign for FSU should the game hang in the balance over the final minutes.

"It's awfully hard to condition yourself physically and mentally to play at the level you want to for 60 minutes without guys subbing," defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews said. "So many times, the physical exhaustion affects the mental so you're compounding your chances for making errors. That's the reason we like to substitute. We do it early in the game so we that we can be at our best when it matters the most if the ballgame comes down to the wire. You just have to say the last two times we went down there and the game came down to the wire, maybe we got out-coached a little bit and out-conditioned and out-performed. Hopefully, our depth can make up a little difference here."

[Hazard]

I disagree with DM I think this will be a very close, competetive, and physical football game and therefore don't think its possible for there to be a clearly favored team. Miami has a very strong, talented, and fast offense that will challange the Florida State defense, but they have to watch out for Bowden's front four to put the head on Berlin from start to finish. The 'Canes and the 'Noles both have the ability to be explosive on the field and think this will be a matchup and certainly a heating rivalry. This is probably THE game to watch this weekend.

[Grok]

First let me say, for this rivalry you can throw out the statistics.

That being said, FSU leads Miami in nearly every statistical category, offensively and defensively, has better depth, less injuries (almost the same thing since we recruit about the same every year), the home field advantage, more motivation (lost last 3 of these), more leadership (seniors), and probably better assistant coaches (especially with the addition of Kevin Steele on linebackers).

Miami leads in rushing ypg by 6, leads in INTs given, leads in penalties and yards lost, and in the all important FG stat.  Those 5 FG against WVU while FSU got 0 against Duke made the difference.

[Hazard]

I agree 100% Grok I'll say that this rivalry is purly for blood and bragging rights.

[DarkMinion]

Without Frank Gore, Miami has no running game.  That became very apparent in the WVU game.  Miami is going to have to pass the entire game, and FSU will take advantage.

This is a big rivalry, and no doubt it will be a close game, but I think FSU puts it away late in the 4th.

[Hazard]

I'll concede the weakness in the Miami rushing game but the one thing I have seen from Miami is a presence of strong will and I think a young player will step up and fill Gore's void. I do agree with DM though that one team will make or break the game in the fourth quarter.

[Grok]

FSU will invite Miami to run.  The strength of Mickey Andrew's defensive scheme is stopping the run.  This will force the game onto Brock Berlin's newbie shoulders.

No new QB has won the FSU-Miami game since umm .. 1982 Kosar?

[DarkMinion]

That's another thing...Brock Berlin has not impressed me at all in his college career.  It makes me very glad that he didn't decide to come to Tech.

He had committed to us, and then jumped ship at the last minute and signed with Florida...I was mad then, but I'm happy now after seeing how unimpressive he has been.  I think FSU grabs at least 2-3 INTs.

[Grok]

Correction (thanks to warchant.com) --

"The necessity to get to Berlin is magnified by the fact that he will be making only his sixth career start, and his first in a truly hostile environment. Traditionally rookie quarterbacks have not faired well in this series. In fact, over the last ten years there have been five first-time starting quarterbacks for Miami, and they are a combined 1-4 versus the Seminoles. The lone exception came in 2000 when Ken Dorsey brought his team from behind in the final minute for the win. But you have to go all the way back to Steve Walsh in 1987 to find the last rookie Hurricane signal caller that escaped Doak Campbell Stadium with a win. "